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Weather Reports and Handicapping
How much of an element is weather in sport handicapping? Even recreational
football fans, those who do not gamble, were aware of Brett Favre's remarkable
winning streak in sub 34 degree temperatures, or Tampas ineptitude when the
football kickoff temperature is below 40 on the scale. It is only fair for
sport handicappers to note most of those Favre football games were
at Green Bay, where his team rarely lost and Tampas incompetence at covering
point spreads was compiled when they were a doormat playing on an icy road.
As far as field conditions benefiting one football team or
the other, the old adage of both squads having to play in the same
circumstances remains true. This is not to say that blizzards or downpours
will not decide the spread, or straight up, outcome.
Many teams are built for their home field and extremes impacting domed
stadiums will no longer be a factor. Come playoff time, and even in the late
regular season, we will hear savvy pundits and long time sport handicappers
questioning the ability of dome teams to win... or even make it to the
Super Bowl. Atlanta making it to the Super Bowl in 1999, and the Rams winning
it all in 2000, did take some bluster out of those convinced of a
domed field disadvantage. Both teams were able to avoid having to play in
nasty outdoor conditions.
We actually agree that domed stadium teams are clearly trained for
domed play and are at a disadvantage in ugly outdoor conditions. We do not disagree
that the Indianapolis defense needs to be improved, and no one questions the genius of
their Head Coach. But the Colts are more high powered than great and, under the
quarterback, we must question their ability to beat any team in northern winter
climates. The same was true for Minnesota, during the Randy Moss era.
The exception to the same conditions rule would be high
powered offenses. Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Ike Reese said. "Sloppy rainy
games are tailor made for running teams. When you have to put the ball up,
you are going to have to worry about sloppy passes, and erratic balls being
fumbled."
The famed Dolphins of the early 70s, who went to the Super
Bowl three straight years, winning two including the perfect season, are a
perfect example of a team that could win under any circumstances.
In fact, Miami-like temperatures fit perfectly with their smash mouth ball
control style.
Teams custom-built for their stadium, of course, will be most
effected by differences that take them out of their comfort zone.
But a road teams style is more quantifying than simply handicapping climate
changes.
The single biggest mistake handicappers make is thinking potential
weather advantages benefit mostly warm climate teams playing in northern cities.
No less of an authority on the subject would be Dan Marino. He played his high
school and college ball in Pittsburgh, and spent a Hall of Fame career in Miami,
but logged many road games in New York, Foxborough, Buffalo and other
cold-weather cities.
Dan Marino believes it is tougher for a cold accustomed
football team to play in a hot temperate city, than visa versa. Ask any newly
arrived New York transplant, now living in south Florida. You will be told there
is an acclimation period adjusting to the much warmer temperature.
One must get used to it.
As a matter of fact, it is easier for heavily padded American
football players to compensate for cold and ice, than it is for them to
prepare for the blistering heat of south Florida, Texas or Arizona. Yet the
handicapper seems to concern himself more with ice and rain, and the December
frozen tundra. Here is a simple fact that could make a difference in winning
more football bets... simply turn up the heat.

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